At $72MM in Year 1, the New Deal loses $19.9MM over ten years at a 10% return. Keep everything Chase has today, take the new assets and rights, drop three categories that do little for Chase, and the deal clears by $45.9MM at $64.2MM.
The walk-away line is the Current Deal fee plus what the new assets, rights and categories are worth to Chase. MSG’s fair price is the new assets at MSG’s own current rate plus what the new categories really cost MSG to give up. Paying above the walk-away hands MSG the surplus Chase earns on the Current Deal.
| Current Deal | New Deal at MSG ask | iDEAL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 fee | $56,000,000 | $72,000,000 | $64,226,481 |
| Year 1 Tangible Value | $56,696,331 | $63,762,578 | $63,762,578 |
| Year 1 Intangible Value | $27,060,346 | $31,488,330 | $30,802,426 |
| Year 1 Estimated Total Value | $83,756,677 | $95,250,909 | $94,565,004 |
| Value per $1 of fee, Year 1 | 1.50 | 1.32 | 1.47 |
| NPV at 8% | +$89,515,352 | +$33,485,401 | +$98,804,746 |
| NPV at 10% | +$43,298,221 | -$19,883,668 | +$45,878,168 |
| NPV at 12% | +$2,721,320 | -$66,727,116 | -$577,817 |
| Present value per $1 of fee at 10% | 1.08 | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| Break-even Year 1 fee at 10% | $60,753,062 | $69,817,270 | $69,262,756 |
Value is discounted at 8%, 10% and 12%, mid-year. The fee is discounted at 5.2%, the 10-year Treasury, because it is fixed by contract and paid at the start of each year.
Tangible Value slips from $63.8MM to $62.7MM as measured media wears and local TV shrinks, while the fee at the ask climbs from $72.0MM to $93.9MM. Intangible Value grows about 3.5% a year, which is what keeps the gap from widening faster.
The nine new assets add $7.1MM of Tangible Value. At MSG’s own current rate that is worth $6.6MM, and Chase gets about $1.07 for every $1.
The 26 new categories are worth $1.8MM a year to Chase and would cost MSG $3.9MM to give up. After the new assets, MSG is effectively charging $9.4MM for them.
Every value on this page is regular season only. Weighted by the chance of each run, Knicks and Rangers playoff exposure would add about $97MM in present value. It is upside, and it belongs in a per-round bank, not the base fee.
Every asset in the blueprint is valued as impressions x retention x CPM from the CAA rate card. Broadcast placements use measured Relo value from the 2025-26 season. Banks and funds are carried at face.
The marks, designation and exclusivity are valued in proportion to each property’s rights-bearing media. Presale and preferred purchase rights, and client hospitality for the Private Bank, are added. No property passes 42.3% intangible.
Each category is priced from 25 comparable team deals scaled to all of MSG. Its value to Chase depends on how much of the likely buyer’s business competes with Chase, and on Chase’s 25.5% share of New York deposits.
Signage and national broadcast drift down about 1% a year. Local TV falls faster as the MSG Networks rights end after 2028-29. Hospitality and the rights grow. Banks rise 3% by contract.
Value is discounted at 8%, 10% and 12% because it is uncertain. The fee is discounted at 5.2% because it is fixed. Using 10% on the fee would make any deal look cheaper than it is.